Welcome to the first version ofThe Athletic’soffseason power rankings. Here we rank the teams based on their chances of competing for next year’s Super Bowl. We’ll revisit these in May after the major offseason moves are complete.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Their 2020 season ended in Super Bowl disappointment, but there’s a reason why the Chiefs have the best odds to win it all next season. They return Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and most of their key starters. Better luck with injuries should fix their offensive line issues, although it’s never a bad idea to add depth there. The Chiefs could look for a steady number two wide receiver or more difference-makers on defense. But overall, this roster doesn’t need much work. Their regular-season record might not be as good as it was in 2020 (14-2), especially considering the Chiefs were 8-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer. But Mahomes should again have the Chiefs as one of the last teams standing.
Advertisem*nt
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They face key free-agent decisions with guys like Chris Godwin, Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, Rob Gronkowski and others. But the Bucs’ coaching staff, which was terrific in the Super Bowl, returns in tact, as do Tom Brady and the entire offensive line. Brady will be 44, which is unprecedented territory. But given how he looked last season (ninth in QBR), it just feels foolish at this point to predict when he’ll start to show significant decline. The last team to repeat was Brady’s New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004. But the Bucs should be legit contenders once again.
3. Green Bay Packers
This offseason should produce less drama than last offseason. Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP, and the Packers’ offense finished first in DVOA. Green Bay has gone 26-6 over the last two seasons, and if Rodgers stays healthy, it should be on the short list of NFC contenders once again. The Packers could lose running back Aaron Jones and All-Pro center Corey Linsley in free agency, but other than that, they’re in good shape. Defensively, the Packers replace coordinator Mike Pettine with Joe Barry, and they’ll need to identify a number two cornerback, assuming Kevin King walks in free agency.
4. Buffalo Bills
They had a great season, going 13-3 and advancing to the AFC Championship Game before losing to the Chiefs, but the Bills have some things to figure out. Their offensive performance in three playoff games was mediocre, and they could lose a pair of starting offensive linemen — Daryl Williams and Jon Feliciano — in free agency. Defensively, the team could lose linebacker Matt Milano. The good news for the Bills is that Sean McDermott brings back offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. If Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs can build on their 2020 performance, the Bills should be right behind the Chiefs as contenders in the AFC.
5. Baltimore Ravens
They face one of the most interesting offseasons of any team on this list. The Ravens could consider inking Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal. They have to make decisions on key free agents like Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue. They could consider targeting a top wide receiver like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay in free agency. And they face a tricky situation with offensive tackle Orlando Brown, who could potentially be a trade chip. The Ravens have stability with Jackson, John Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Greg Roman and defensive coordinator Don Martindale. But they need to get more consistency from their passing game to get over the hump in the AFC.
Advertisem*nt
6. San Francisco 49ers
As of this writing, it’s unclear whether they’ll stick with Jimmy Garoppolo or look elsewhere at quarterback. What they can’t do is lean on Garoppolo as the starter without a better backup plan. Garoppolo has started 25 of a possible 48 games in the last three seasons. San Francisco may have to pay big money to keep left tackle Trent Williams, and the 49ers are likely to experience significant turnover on defense, given that Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, K’Wuan Williams and Jaquiski Tartt are all pending free agents. To make matters more challenging, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh left to coach the Jets. The defense might not be as good, but if they can get consistent quarterback play in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, this team has a high ceiling.
7. Los Angeles Rams
They swung for the fences with their trade for Matthew Stafford. We can debate whether that was a wise move, but count me among those who believe it raised the Rams’ ceiling to Super Bowl contender. Given their cap situation, they are unlikely to be major players in free agency. And they’ve traded away picks in the first, third, fourth and fifth rounds of the draft. Los Angeles lost defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and could lose key free agents like edge rusher Leonard Floyd and safety John Johnson. But they still have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey — two Hall of Fame-caliber players who are in their primes. If Sean McVay was right about the quarterback situation, this team could produce a top-five offense and get to the Super Bowl. The Rams just don’t have much margin for error, given their limited resources.
8. Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll give them a high floor, but there aren’t a lot of obvious avenues by which the Seahawks can dramatically improve their roster. They’re without a first-round pick, given the Jamal Adams trade. And they have to make decisions on key free agents like linebacker K.J. Wright, cornerback Shaquill Griffin and running back Chris Carson. It’s also unclear what Carroll’s decision to fire Brian Schottenheimer and hire Shane Waldron means for the direction of the offense. The Seahawks will be in the playoff mix, but they have not advanced past the divisional round since 2014 and have just one playoff win in the last four years.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
Having them this high will surprise some, but remember that this is about projecting future performance, not ranking teams based on the past. There’s a scenario where Justin Herbert builds on his impressive rookie season and takes the league by storm, transforming the Chargers into a top-five offense. Brandon Staley can’t be any worse than Anthony Lynn with in-game management and could potentially provide a huge upgrade. And the Chargers will get Derwin James back. They’ve got all their draft picks and have a better cap situation than most teams. I know this is dangerous to say out loud, but I’m bullish on the Chargers and think they could be the surprise team of 2021.
10. Cleveland Browns
They have to be thrilled with how their 2020 season went: an 11-5 regular season, a dominating upset win over the Steelers in the wild-card round and a hard-fought loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. The Browns feel like a surprisingly stable franchise. They will enter year two with Baker Mayfield in Kevin Stefanski’s system, and they’ll bring back all five starters on one of the league’s best offensive lines. That’s a great foundation to work off of. Cleveland faces a big decision on whether to keep Odell Beckham Jr. They could opt to move him and clear up $15.75 million in cap space. Defensively, they need secondary help and could stand to bolster their pass rush. But GM Andrew Berry has four picks in the first three rounds and cap space to work with. On paper, Cleveland should be a better team next season.
Advertisem*nt
11. Indianapolis Colts
They are one of the most difficult teams to slot because of the uncertainty at quarterback. We know the Colts are going to add someone. We just don’t know who. They went 11-5 last season but also faced the league’s easiest schedule. The Colts could lose some sneaky productive veterans like Justin Houston, T.Y. Hilton, Denico Autry and Xavier Rhodes. Plus left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired. They have blue-chip players in Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard. And Indianapolis is well-positioned from a cap perspective to add talent. But their ceiling depends on what they do at QB.
12. Miami Dolphins
The quarterback question will hang over their offseason until the Deshaun Watson situation is resolved. Adding Watson would make the Dolphins instant Super Bowl contenders. If they stand pat with Tua Tagovailoa, the focus should be on doing everything possible to help him succeed. But their ceiling in the short term would be considerably lower. The Dolphins are in good shape to improve their roster with two first-round picks (Nos. 3 and 18), along with cap space to make moves in free agency.
13. Atlanta Falcons
I am probably on an island having them this high, but there’s reason to believe the Falcons could be one of the NFL’s most improved teams. They went 1-8 in one-score games last season. They still have Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Arthur Smith can bring back concepts that Ryan had success with under Kyle Shanahan. And defensively, Dean Pees historically has gotten the most out of his talent. They were not a good team last year, but they were also victims of terrible, terrible luck. This team has a legit shot to turn it around quickly and make the playoffs in 2021.
14. Dallas Cowboys
The good news: They should get a healthy Dak Prescott back. They were able to retain Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator. And Dan Quinn could offer an upgrade over Mike Nolan at defensive coordinator. However, the Cowboys enter a tricky offseason. All indications are that they’ll either sign Prescott to a long-term extension or use the franchise tag on him for the second time. If it’s the latter, the Cowboys need to consider what their longer term quarterback plan is going to be because Prescott would likely hit the open market in 2022 in a Kirk Cousins-esque scenario. With a healthy Prescott, the Cowboys have the talent to field one of the league’s most efficient offenses, and that usually translates to a high ceiling. But Mike McCarthy’s performance last season did little to elicit confidence, and the defense is still a big question mark.
15. New England Patriots
We are going to find out how Bill Belichick would build a team if he were starting from scratch. In many ways, that’s the 2021 offseason for the Patriots. They rank in the top five in cap space. They don’t have big money tied to a quarterback. And they have the 15th overall pick. Will Belichick swing big for a quarterback via trade? Will he draft someone early? Or will he do what he did last year, wait, and try to find value? Will he prioritize the offensive line or pass-catching weapons? Defensively, will he look to trade cornerback Stephon Gilmore? The Patriots went 7-9 in a season that was in many ways a disaster. Given how much flexibility they have this offseason, it’s entirely possible that they could be back competing for the AFC East next season.
16. Tennessee Titans
Many predicted that they would be hit with regression in 2020, but that didn’t really happen. Next season, though, could be a different story. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith left to become the head coach in Atlanta. Wide receiver Corey Davis and tight end Jonnu Smith are scheduled to hit free agency. And the defense ranked 29th in DVOA. If they can maintain their offensive efficiency with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, they’ll have a chance. But this group could be looking at a step back.
(AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s unclear whether Ben Roethlisberger will be back. He toldThe Athletic’sEd Bouchette that he wants to return for one more year, but for that to happen the two sides have to agree to a restructured contract. The Steelers are in bad cap shape, and they have key pending free agents like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bud Dupree and Alejandro Villanueva. The floor is always high with Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing season in 14 years as Pittsburgh’s head coach, but 2020 might have been their last real shot to win one more title with Roethlisberger.
Advertisem*nt
18. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray’s talent gives them a high ceiling, but the Cardinals can’t be happy with how last season ended. Their offense sputtered, finishing 19th in DVOA, and Kliff Kingsbury failed to find answers. The Cardinals have nine pending unrestricted free agents who played at least 50 percent of the snaps last season, including cornerback Patrick Peterson and edge defender Haason Reddick. With Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, there’s no reason why this can’t be a top-five or top-10 offense.
19. Minnesota Vikings
It feels like they are stuck in the NFL’s middle class. The Vikings have missed out on the playoffs in two out of three seasons with Kirk Cousins as their starter. That’s not to say the offense has always been the problem. Minnesota ranked eighth in offensive efficiency last season but now will move forward without play-caller Gary Kubiak, who retired. The defense experienced significant turnover and finished 18th in DVOA. The Vikings face key decisions on whether to keep left tackle Riley Reiff and linebacker Anthony Barr. It’s reasonable to expect the Vikings’ young players to improve, but given how the last few years have played out, it seems unlikely that this team will have a Super Bowl ceiling.
20. Carolina Panthers
They seem like a team that wants very much to make a big move at quarterback and should not be counted out if the Texans end up making Watson available. Adding Watson would instantly make the Panthers contenders in the NFC. Carolina faces key decisions up front with four of their starting offensive linemen, including standout right tackle Taylor Moton, set to hit free agency. They have work to do on defense, but it’s reasonable to expect their young players to improve and grow more comfortable in Carolina’s scheme. If they stick with Teddy Bridgewater, the ceiling is low, but the playoffs are attainable.
21. Las Vegas Raiders
They made a number of moves in free agency last offseason, but their defense still stunk, finishing 28th in efficiency. Jon Gruden fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther during the season and has replaced him with Gus Bradley. Whether that results in enough of a fix remains to be seen. Offensively, the team could lose wide receiver Nelson Agholor in free agency, and with Gruden, you never know if a big quarterback move is right around the corner, or if they’ll stick with Derek Carr. They should be a competitive team that can compete for a playoff spot, but unless Bradley works miracles or the team pulls a surprise trade for Watson, it’s hard to imagine a Super Bowl ceiling.
22. Washington Football Team
They are another team whose quarterback situation is in flux. Washington made a play for Stafford, but the Lions liked the Rams’ offer better. Washington could turn its attention to Sam Darnold or Cam Newton or just try to address the position in the draft. Washington’s biggest free-agent decision will be on guard Brandon Scherff, who played last year on the franchise tag. They have money to spend and should look to target a wide receiver to pair with Terry McLaurin. Defensively, Washington brings back a young and talented pass rush that should only get better. If they hit big on a quarterback, they could be interesting in 2021. But this roster still has a lot of holes.
23. Denver Broncos
They went into last season with all their eggs in the Drew Lock basket, and he finished 29th in QBR. The Broncos have young, talented wide receivers, and Vic Fangio will make the most of their personnel on defense. It’s all about whether they decide to take a big swing on a quarterback or just bring in a low-cost veteran to compete with Lock. Overall, it’s not a terrible roster, and the Broncos could be frisky, depending on the moves they make in the months ahead.
24. New Orleans Saints
Barring something unforeseen, they will be entering a new era without Drew Brees and with the NFL’s worst cap situation. Sean Payton has worked his magic in the past when Brees has been sidelined, but now he’ll likely be trying to compete for an entire season with Taysom Hill and/or Jameis Winston, who is a pending free agent. Defensively, the Saints could lose pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and safety Marcus Williams in free agency. And New Orleans will likely have to part with other veterans to get under the cap. It’s risky to underestimate Payton, but the Saints are in a really tough spot going into next season.
Advertisem*nt
25. Chicago Bears
Who’s playing quarterback? Carson Wentz? Nick Foles? Mitch Trubisky? All options are on the table for the Bears as they partake in the annual tradition of trying to figure out their quarterback situation. Chicago is not in great shape to improve its roster and could lose wide receiver Allen Robinson in free agency. There’s a scenario where they are at least a playoff team again next season. But barring a game-changing move at quarterback, this roster feels far, far away from competing for a Super Bowl.
26. Houston Texans
The Watson trade hangs over their offseason. The Texans’ best option is to keep Watson, make him happy and build around him. But given the way they managed their GM and coaching searches, it might be too late for that. If the Texans keep Watson, they can be competitive. They weren’t quite as bad in 2020 as their record indicated. Houston was 2-7 in games decided by seven points or fewer. But the roster is bad, and they have no first-round pick. They proved last year that you can get great quarterback play and still be terrible. If the Texans trade Watson, they’ll acquire draft capital to build for the future but will likely be terrible in 2021.
27. Cincinnati Bengals
It’d be a lot easier to talk myself into the Bengals making a major leap had Joe Burrow finished the season healthy. Cincinnati needs to aggressively address the offensive line both in free agency and the draft. Defensively, the Bengals could lose two of their better players in cornerback William Jackson and edge rusher Carl Lawson in free agency. I am still a big believer in Burrow, and this team could be frisky in 2021 if he gets back to full health, but the roster still needs a lot of work.
28. New York Jets
They are in a good place to build the right way with GM Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh. The Jets have two first-round picks, including the second overall selection. They could acquire more draft capital if they trade Sam Darnold. And they have cap space to spend in free agency. That’s the good news. The bad news is the roster needs a lot of work. There’s no realistic scenario where this team contends in 2021. But they’re moving on from one of the worst head coaches in the league. A great scenario for the Jets would be a fun, competitive team in 2021 and a playoff team in 2022.
29. Philadelphia Eagles
They are another team without an answer at quarterback. As of this writing, Wentz has not been traded, but the expectation is that he will be. If the Eagles identify a high-ceiling quarterback who’s available at No. 6 in the draft, they could take a swing. If not, they can ride with Jalen Hurts in 2021. If he plays well, great. If not, they can try to come up with a quarterback solution next offseason. The Eagles are in bad cap shape and won’t be able to significantly improve their roster in free agency, and they lack young talent. If Nick Sirianni emerges as the next Bill Walsh or Hurts looks like the next Russell Wilson, they could win the NFC East in 2021. But the most likely scenario is a low-ceiling, mediocre team.
30. New York Giants
Offensively, they’re running it back with Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones and hoping that a healthy Saquon Barkley will be enough to help them be better than 26th (last year’s ranking) in efficiency. They could be in the market for one of the big-name free-agent wide receivers. Defensively, they showed some flashes but were mostly mediocre. Now they have to make free-agent decisions on defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson. The Giants can be competitive in the terrible NFC East but are nowhere close to being a contender.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
No team is better positioned for a rebuild. The Jaguars have two first-round picks, including the top overall selection, which will presumably be used on Trevor Lawrence. And they have more cap space than any team. Jacksonville also has some young, talented players. If Lawrence is good right away — and we’re seeing more of that with rookie quarterbacks — the Jaguars could be competitive in 2021.
Advertisem*nt
32. Detroit Lions
I don’t know how many wins they’ll have, but I feel confident that Detroit will lead the league in KD (Kneecaps Devoured). That is the first of 17,000 kneecap jokes I plan on making this offseason. I’m sorry, Lions fans. It’ll be pretty much a full rebuild for Detroit. They’ll buy time with Jared Goff at quarterback and try to build up the roster through the draft, which is a fine strategy. But it’ll take time. The Lions’ biggest free-agent decision is whether or not to bring back Kenny Golladay. Overall, new GM Brad Holmes has a lot of work to do.
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
