Last Update: 31 March 2024
The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 70% on Stocks.
In the period Jan 1871 - Mar 2024, the portfolio granted a 8.05% annualized return, with a -70.1% maximum drawdown.
Key Points
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.961% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.93% of cases, and for 50 years in the 87.9% of cases .
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio
The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio contains 70% Stocks, 30% Bonds.
| Weight | Asset Class | Category |
|---|---|---|
| 70.00 % | Total US Stock Market | Stocks |
| 30.00 % | Total US Bond Market | Fixed Income |
Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.88% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -37.47%.
7.899% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at March 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.
A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.
A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 | Withdrawal Rate (%) | Investment Performances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] | Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years | 1 Apr 2014 | 31 Mar 2024 | 6.059 | 13.503 | 9.14 [ 6.14 ] | -21.69 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 20 Years | 1 Apr 2004 | 31 Mar 2024 | 4.784 | 7.336 | 8.15 [ 5.42 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 30 Years | 1 Apr 1994 | 31 Mar 2024 | 6.593 | 7.899 | 8.88 [ 6.18 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 40 Years | 1 Apr 1984 | 31 Mar 2024 | 8.170 | 8.778 | 9.92 [ 6.90 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 50 Years | 1 Apr 1974 | 31 Mar 2024 | 5.101 | 5.384 | 10.12 [ 6.07 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 60 Years | 1 Apr 1964 | 31 Mar 2024 | 3.694 | 3.882 | 9.31 [ 5.17 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 70 Years | 1 Apr 1954 | 31 Mar 2024 | 6.084 | 6.201 | 9.60 [ 5.83 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 80 Years | 1 Apr 1944 | 31 Mar 2024 | 5.828 | 5.891 | 9.73 [ 5.84 ] | -37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2024
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio?
▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
| PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes | 10 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Jun 1908 Jun 1908 - May 1918 Annualized Return: 4.87% (-0.40% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -15.75% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 0.000 Jun 1910 Jun 1910 - May 1920 Annualized Return: 4.01% (-3.26% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -15.75% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 1.783 Jul 1911 Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 2.55% (-4.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -15.75% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 4.975 Jul 1911 Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 2.55% (-4.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -15.75% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 7.642 Jan 1973 Jan 1973 - Dec 1982 Annualized Return: 7.97% (-0.64% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 8.821 | 9.583 | 10.780 | 13.262 | |
| 20 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Apr 1901 Apr 1901 - Mar 1921 Annualized Return: 4.39% (-0.09% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -21.79% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 0.815 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 3.70% (-0.61% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -21.79% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 2.326 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 3.70% (-0.61% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -21.79% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 3.838 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 3.70% (-0.61% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -21.79% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 4.674 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1988 Annualized Return: 9.21% (2.73% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 5.290 | 5.598 | 6.067 | 8.247 | ||
| 30 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.644 Jun 1902 Jun 1902 - May 1932 Annualized Return: 3.33% (1.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.355 Jun 1902 Jun 1902 - May 1932 Annualized Return: 3.33% (1.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.066 Jun 1902 Jun 1902 - May 1932 Annualized Return: 3.33% (1.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.764 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1998 Annualized Return: 11.06% (5.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.961 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1998 Annualized Return: 11.06% (5.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 4.394 | 4.605 | 5.013 | 6.654 | ||
| 40 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.871 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1941 Annualized Return: 5.58% (3.83% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.077 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1941 Annualized Return: 5.58% (3.83% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.282 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1941 Annualized Return: 5.58% (3.83% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.487 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1941 Annualized Return: 5.58% (3.83% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.692 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2008 Annualized Return: 8.64% (3.88% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.996 | 4.166 | 4.515 | 5.629 | ||
| 50 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.954 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1951 Annualized Return: 6.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.079 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1951 Annualized Return: 6.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.204 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1951 Annualized Return: 6.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.329 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1951 Annualized Return: 6.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.453 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1951 Annualized Return: 6.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.762 | 3.931 | 4.238 | 5.092 | ||
| 60 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.176 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 7.47% (5.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.220 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 7.47% (5.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.264 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 7.47% (5.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.308 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 7.47% (5.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.352 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 7.47% (5.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.761 | 3.949 | 4.308 | 5.098 | ||
| 70 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.188 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 7.42% (4.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.217 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 7.42% (4.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.247 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 7.42% (4.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.277 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 7.42% (4.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.306 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 7.42% (4.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.690 | 3.871 | 4.250 | 5.158 | ||
| 80 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.140 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 7.47% (4.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.171 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 7.47% (4.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.202 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 7.47% (4.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.233 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 7.47% (4.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.264 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 7.47% (4.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.613 | 3.789 | 4.118 | 4.911 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
Legend:
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
| PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes | 10 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Jun 1964 Jun 1964 - May 1974 Annualized Return: 4.47% (-0.16% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -21.97% (Dec 1968 - Jun 1970) | 0.000 Oct 1964 Oct 1964 - Sep 1974 Annualized Return: 1.93% (-2.91% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 2.786 Jul 1972 Jul 1972 - Jun 1982 Annualized Return: 5.87% (-2.70% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 5.407 Jun 1972 Jun 1972 - May 1982 Annualized Return: 5.94% (-2.54% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 7.642 Jan 1973 Jan 1973 - Dec 1982 Annualized Return: 7.97% (-0.64% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 9.101 | 9.738 | 10.753 | 13.207 | |
| 20 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.867 Apr 1962 Apr 1962 - Mar 1982 Annualized Return: 6.70% (0.77% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 2.171 Apr 1962 Apr 1962 - Mar 1982 Annualized Return: 6.70% (0.77% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.232 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 Annualized Return: 3.38% (1.75% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.993 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1988 Annualized Return: 9.21% (2.73% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 4.674 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1988 Annualized Return: 9.21% (2.73% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 5.223 | 5.593 | 6.239 | 8.280 | ||
| 30 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.912 Feb 1965 Feb 1965 - Jan 1995 Annualized Return: 9.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.244 Feb 1965 Feb 1965 - Jan 1995 Annualized Return: 9.54% (3.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.552 Nov 1965 Nov 1965 - Oct 1995 Annualized Return: 10.01% (4.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.764 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1998 Annualized Return: 11.06% (5.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.961 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 1998 Annualized Return: 11.06% (5.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 4.347 | 4.656 | 5.200 | 7.100 | ||
| 40 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.888 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2008 Annualized Return: 8.64% (3.88% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.089 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2008 Annualized Return: 8.64% (3.88% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.290 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2008 Annualized Return: 8.64% (3.88% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.491 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2008 Annualized Return: 8.64% (3.88% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 3.692 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2008 Annualized Return: 8.64% (3.88% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -33.35% (Jan 1973 - Sep 1974) | 4.000 | 4.238 | 4.589 | 5.907 | ||
| 50 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.074 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1979 Annualized Return: 6.88% (3.82% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.213 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1979 Annualized Return: 6.88% (3.82% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.353 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1979 Annualized Return: 6.88% (3.82% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.440 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2018 Annualized Return: 9.18% (4.97% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 3.518 Dec 1968 Dec 1968 - Nov 2018 Annualized Return: 9.18% (4.97% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 3.790 | 3.967 | 4.238 | 5.216 | ||
| 60 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.267 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1989 Annualized Return: 8.22% (4.72% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.321 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1989 Annualized Return: 8.22% (4.72% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.376 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1989 Annualized Return: 8.22% (4.72% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.431 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1989 Annualized Return: 8.22% (4.72% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.486 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1989 Annualized Return: 8.22% (4.72% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 4.027 | 4.187 | 4.568 | 5.425 | ||
| 70 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.349 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1999 Annualized Return: 8.95% (5.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.369 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1999 Annualized Return: 8.95% (5.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.390 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1999 Annualized Return: 8.95% (5.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.410 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1999 Annualized Return: 8.95% (5.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.431 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 1999 Annualized Return: 8.95% (5.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 4.015 | 4.360 | 4.795 | 5.877 | ||
| 80 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.319 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 2009 Annualized Return: 8.10% (4.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.340 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 2009 Annualized Return: 8.10% (4.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.361 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 2009 Annualized Return: 8.10% (4.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.382 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 2009 Annualized Return: 8.10% (4.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.403 Sep 1929 Sep 1929 - Aug 2009 Annualized Return: 8.10% (4.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -70.10% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 3.860 | 4.104 | 4.577 | 5.364 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
Legend:
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
| PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes | 10 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Nov 1998 Nov 1998 - Oct 2008 Annualized Return: 2.61% (-0.20% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -28.56% (Sep 2000 - Sep 2002) | 0.457 Mar 1999 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 Annualized Return: 0.12% (-2.40% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 3.757 Mar 1999 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 Annualized Return: 0.12% (-2.40% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 6.383 Sep 2000 Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 Annualized Return: 1.41% (-0.93% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 8.797 Sep 2000 Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 Annualized Return: 1.41% (-0.93% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 10.111 | 10.792 | 11.322 | 14.058 | |
| 20 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.451 Apr 2000 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 Annualized Return: 5.20% (3.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 3.190 Apr 2000 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 Annualized Return: 5.20% (3.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 3.929 Apr 2000 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 Annualized Return: 5.20% (3.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 4.668 Apr 2000 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 Annualized Return: 5.20% (3.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 5.407 Apr 2000 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 Annualized Return: 5.20% (3.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.47% (Nov 2007 - Feb 2009) | 5.957 | 6.493 | 7.632 | 9.130 | ||
| 30 Years Worst Period (from) | 5.140 Apr 1974 Apr 1974 - Mar 2004 Annualized Return: 11.46% (6.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -28.56% (Sep 2000 - Sep 2002) | 5.369 Apr 1974 Apr 1974 - Mar 2004 Annualized Return: 11.46% (6.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -28.56% (Sep 2000 - Sep 2002) | 5.598 Apr 1974 Apr 1974 - Mar 2004 Annualized Return: 11.46% (6.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -28.56% (Sep 2000 - Sep 2002) | 5.827 Apr 1974 Apr 1974 - Mar 2004 Annualized Return: 11.46% (6.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -28.56% (Sep 2000 - Sep 2002) | 6.056 Apr 1974 Apr 1974 - Mar 2004 Annualized Return: 11.46% (6.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -28.56% (Sep 2000 - Sep 2002) | 6.866 | 7.109 | 7.399 | 7.995 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
Legend:
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2024
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate | 10 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years | 20 Years | 30 Years | 30 Years | 40 Years | 40 Years | 50 Years | 50 Years | 60 Years | 60 Years | 70 Years | 70 Years | 80 Years | 80 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||||||||
| 2.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||||||||
| 3.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.453% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.352% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.306% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.264% | ||||
| 3.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.961% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.692% | 99.84 | 95% Succ. 3.762% | 99.29 | 95% Succ. 3.761% | 98.60 | 95% Succ. 3.690% | 97.61 | 95% Succ. 3.613% | ||
| 4.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.93 | 95% Succ. 4.394% | 94.85 | 90% Succ. 4.166% | 87.90 | 80% Succ. 4.238% | 89.20 | 80% Succ. 4.308% | 86.70 | 80% Succ. 4.250% | 83.64 | 80% Succ. 4.118% | ||
| 4.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 4.674% | 92.97 | 90% Succ. 4.605% | 80.44 | 80% Succ. 4.515% | 71.69 | 72.86 | 71.90 | 65.91 | 50% Succ. 4.911% | ||||
| 5.00 % | 100.00 | 99.06 | 95% Succ. 5.290% | 80.34 | 80% Succ. 5.013% | 67.28 | 53.06 | 50% Succ. 5.092% | 52.68 | 50% Succ. 5.098% | 53.90 | 50% Succ. 5.158% | 46.93 | |||
| 5.50 % | 100.00 | 91.81 | 90% Succ. 5.598% | 70.41 | 52.65 | 50% Succ. 5.629% | 40.24 | 41.96 | 44.40 | 37.16 | ||||||
| 6.00 % | 100.00 | 81.25 | 80% Succ. 6.067% | 61.55 | 44.34 | 32.90 | 32.86 | 33.90 | 27.61 | |||||||
| 6.50 % | 100.00 | 75.00 | 51.89 | 50% Succ. 6.654% | 36.54 | 25.97 | 25.63 | 26.80 | 22.84 | |||||||
| 7.00 % | 100.00 | 68.88 | 45.47 | 28.31 | 18.95 | 17.68 | 17.90 | 16.36 | ||||||||
| 7.50 % | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 7.642% | 62.56 | 37.30 | 21.32 | 12.34 | 9.73 | 8.40 | 7.50 | |||||||
| 8.00 % | 99.53 | 53.88 | 27.09 | 14.78 | 5.65 | 4.11 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
'; } }, tooltip: { useHTML:true, padding:0, formatter: function() { var series = this.series.chart.series; text = '
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'; }, this); text += '
'; return text; } }, plotOptions: { spline: { marker: { enabled: false } } }, series: [ { name: '10 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '20 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '30 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '40 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '50 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '60 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '70 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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//data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, ] };
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate | 10 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years | 20 Years | 30 Years | 30 Years | 40 Years | 40 Years | 50 Years | 50 Years | 60 Years | 60 Years | 70 Years | 70 Years | 80 Years | 80 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||||||||
| 2.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||||||||
| 3.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.486% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.431% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.403% | |||||
| 3.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.961% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.692% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.518% | 99.79 | 99.72 | 99.59 | 95% Succ. 3.860% | ||||
| 4.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.88 | 95% Succ. 4.347% | 94.87 | 90% Succ. 4.238% | 88.85 | 80% Succ. 4.238% | 96.05 | 95% Succ. 4.027% | 95.29 | 95% Succ. 4.015% | 91.70 | 90% Succ. 4.104% | ||
| 4.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 4.674% | 92.75 | 90% Succ. 4.656% | 81.97 | 80% Succ. 4.589% | 72.38 | 81.70 | 80% Succ. 4.568% | 87.81 | 80% Succ. 4.795% | 80.91 | 80% Succ. 4.577% | ||
| 5.00 % | 100.00 | 98.54 | 95% Succ. 5.223% | 82.28 | 80% Succ. 5.200% | 70.60 | 55.24 | 50% Succ. 5.216% | 63.20 | 50% Succ. 5.425% | 75.07 | 64.32 | 50% Succ. 5.364% | |||
| 5.50 % | 100.00 | 91.57 | 90% Succ. 5.593% | 74.20 | 58.39 | 50% Succ. 5.907% | 41.76 | 47.82 | 60.39 | 50% Succ. 5.877% | 45.23 | |||||
| 6.00 % | 100.00 | 83.04 | 80% Succ. 6.239% | 65.64 | 49.51 | 33.61 | 37.84 | 45.15 | 28.63 | |||||||
| 6.50 % | 100.00 | 76.69 | 58.03 | 40.36 | 25.12 | 25.16 | 29.64 | 18.26 | ||||||||
| 7.00 % | 100.00 | 70.03 | 51.13 | 50% Succ. 7.100% | 30.24 | 13.14 | 11.43 | 13.30 | 9.13 | |||||||
| 7.50 % | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 7.642% | 62.12 | 41.14 | 18.72 | 5.82 | 5.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 | |||||||
| 8.00 % | 99.44 | 53.80 | 27.94 | 11.51 | 1.50 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.66 |
'; } }, tooltip: { useHTML:true, padding:0, formatter: function() { var series = this.series.chart.series; text = '
'; text += 'Withdrawal:'+this.point.x.toFixed(1)+'%
'; series.forEach(function(s) { text +='Over '+s.name+': Success: '+s.points[this.point.index].y.toFixed(2)+'%
'; }, this); text += '
'; return text; } }, plotOptions: { spline: { marker: { enabled: false } } }, series: [ { name: '10 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '70 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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